2013 NFL Draft: A Review of FRG Scouting’s Big Board

April 29, 2013

Analysis

In order to become the best possible talent evaluator, you have to look back at your work and be your own worst critic.  Now that the 2013 NFL Draft is in the books, I decided to revisit the FRG Scouting Big Board (top 100) and see how it ultimately played out on draft weekend.

Below is the Big Board that was published a few days before the draft kicked off.  The players appear in four different colors:  Gold, Green, Black, and Red.  The players in gold represent picks that were selected within five spots of their big board placement.  Players in green are picks that were made within ten spots of their big board placement.  Players in black were selected anywhere between 11 and 49 spots of their big board placement.  Players in red were selected 50 or more spots from their big board placement.

It should be noted that this does not mean an evaluation was right or wrong.  It simply compares FRG Scouting’s Big Board with the various big boards throughout the NFL.  Andre Ellington, for example, was drafted 164 spots lower than his No. 23 ranking on FRG scouting’s Big Board.  We are confident in our evaluation, but there’s a big disconnect between our grade and what the NFL obviously thought of him.  Time will determine who is “right.”

Additionally, FRG Scouting did not scout all of the corners and safeties in this year’s class, resulting in a somewhat skewed top 100.  Remember: We only graded players that we felt comfortable with after full and complete film study.

Finally, take a moment to review the player’s grade  and compare it to where he was ultimately drafted.

See GRADING SCALE here.

1.                   Barkevious Mingo, DE, LSU  (9.2)

Actual Draft Position:  1.06, Cleveland Browns.

2.                   Jonathan Cooper, OG, UNC   (9.0)

Actual Draft Position:  1.07, Arizona Cardinals

3.                   Tank Carradine, DE, Florida State (9.0)

Actual Draft Position:  2.40, San Francisco 49ers

4.                   Dion Jordan, OLB/DE, Oregon (9.0)

Actual Draft Position:  1.03, Miami Dolpphins

5.                   Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia (8.9)

Actual Draft Position:  1.08, St. Louis Rams

6.                   Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama (8.9)

Actual Draft Position:  1.10, Tennessee Titans

7.                   Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri  (8.9)

Actual Draft Position:  1.13, New York Jets

8.                   Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah  (8.9)

Actual Draft Position:  1.15, Carolina Panthers

9.                   Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan  (8.8)

Actual Draft Position:  1.01, Kansas City Chiefs

10.               Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida State  (8.7)

Actual Draft Position: 1.24, Indianapolis Colts

11.               Luke Joeckel, OT, TAMU (8.5)

Actual Draft Position:  1.02, Jacksonville Jaguars

12.               Datone Jones, DE, UCLA  (8.5)

Actual Draft Position:  1.26, Green Bay Packers

13.               Sylvester Williams, DT, UNC  (8.5)

Actual Draft Position:  1.28, Denver Broncos

14.               Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama (8.5)

Actual Draft Position:  1.09, New York Jets

15.               Robert Woods, WR, USC (8.4)

Actual Draft Position:  2.41, Buffalo Bills

16.               Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Tennessee (8.4)

Actual Draft Position:  1.29, Minnesota Vikings

17.               Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame (8.3)

Actual Draft Position: 1.21, Cincinnati Bengals

18.               Lane Johnson, OT, Oklahoma (8.2)

Actual Draft Position:  1.04, Philadelphia Eagles

19.               Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida St. (8.2)

Actual Draft Position:  1.25, Minnesota Vikings

20.               Menelik Watson, OT, Florida State (8.2)

Actual Draft Position:  2.42, Oakland Raiders

21.               Desmond Trufant, CB, Washington (8.2)

Actual Draft Position:  1.22, Atlanta Falcons

22.               Sharrif Floyd, DT, Florida (8.1)

Actual Draft Position:  1.23, Minnesota Vikings

23.               Andre Ellington, RB, Clemson (8.1)

Actual Draft Position: 6.187, Arizona Cardinals

24.               Keenan Allen, WR, Cal (8.1)

Actual Draft Position:  3.76, San Diego Chargers

25.               Kenny Vaccaro, S, Texas (8.0)

Actual Draft Position:  1.15, New Orleans Saints

26.               Jarvis Jones, OLB, UGA (8.0)

Actual Draft Position:  1.17, Pittsburgh Steelers

27.               John Jenkins, DT, Georgia (8.0)

Actual Draft Position:  3.82, New Orleans Saints

28.               Jonathan Banks, CB, Mississippi St. (8.0)

Actual Draft Position:  2.43, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

29.               Johnathan Hankins, DT, Ohio State (8.0)

Actual Draft Position: 2.49, New York Giants

30.               Geno Smith, QB, WVU (7.9)

Actual Draft Position:  2.36, New York Jets

31.               Eddie Lacy, RB, Alabama (7.9)

Actual Draft Position:  2.61, Green Bay Packers

32.               Giovanni Bernard, RB, UNC (7.9)

Actual Draft Position:  2.37, Cincinnati Bengals

33.               Ezekiel Ansah, DE, BYU (7.8)

Actual Draft Position:  1.05, Detroit Lions

34.               Arthur Brown, OLB, Kansas St. (7.8)

Actual Draft Position:  2.56, Baltimore Ravens

35.               Jamie Collins, OLB, Southern Miss (7.8)

Actual Draft Position:  2.52, New England Patriots

36.               Larry Warford, OG, Kentucky (7.8)

Actual Draft Position:  3.65, Detroit Lions

37.               DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Clemson (7.8)

Actual Draft Position:  1.27, Houston Texans

38.               Tyler Wilson, QB, Arkansas (7.7)

Actual Draft Position:  4.112, Oakland Raiders

39.               Jesse Williams, DT, Alabama (7.6)

Actual Draft Position:  5.137, Seattle Seahawks

40.               DJ Fluker, OT, Alabama (7.6)

Actual Draft Position:  1.12, San Diego Chargers

41.               Jamar Taylor, CB, Boise St. (7.6)

Actual Draft Position:  2.54, Miami Dolphins

42.               Quinton Patton, WR, La Tech (7.6)

Actual Draft Position:  4.128, San Francisco 49ers

43.               Le’Veon Bell, RB, MSU (7.5)

Actual Draft Position:  2.48, Pittsburgh Steelers

44.               Terron Armstead, OT, Arkansas Pine-Bluff (7.5)

Actual Draft Position:  3.75, New Orleans Saints

45.               Alex Okafor, DE, Texas (7.5)

Actual Draft Position:  4.103, Arizona Cardinals

46.               Matt Elam, S, Florida (7.5)

Actual Draft Position:  1.32, Baltimore Ravens

47.               Margus Hunt, DE, SMU (7.5)

Actual Draft Position: 2.53, Cincinnati Bengals

48.               Justin Hunter, WR, Tennessee (7.5)

Actual Draft Position: 2.34, Tennessee Titans

49.               Kawann Short, DT, Purdue (7.5)

Actual Draft Position:  2.44, Carolina Panthers

50.               Da’Rick Rogers, WR, Tenn Tech (7.5)

N/A

51.               DJ Hayden, CB, Houston (7.5)

Actual Draft Position:  1.12, Oakland Raiders

52.               Justin Pugh, OT, Syracuse (7.4)

Actual Draft Position:  1.19, New York Giants

53.               Kevin Minter, LB, LSU (7.4)

Actual Draft Position:  2.45, Arizona Cardinals

54.               David Amerson, CB, South Carolina (7.4)

Actual Draft Position:  2.51, Washington Redskins

55.               Chris Gragg, TE, Arkansas (7.4)

Actual Draft Position:  7.222, Buffalo Bills

56.               Devin Taylor, DE, South Carolina (7.4)

Actual Draft Position:  4.132, Detroit Lions

57.               Corey Lemonier, OLB, Auburn (7.3)

Actual Draft Position:  3.88, San Francisco 49ers

58.               EJ Manuel, QB, Florida St. (7.2)

Actual Draft Position:  1.16, Buffalo Bills

59.               Jonathan Franklin, RB, UCLA (7.2)

Actual Draft Position:  4.125, Green Bay Packers

60.               Jordan Poyer, CB, Oregon St. (7.2)

Actual Draft Position:  7.218, Philadelphia Eagles

61.               Brandon Williams, DT, Missouri Southern (7.2)

Actual Draft Position:  3.94, Baltimore Ravens

62.               Terrance Williams, WR, Baylor (7.2)

Actual Draft Position:  3.74, Dallas Cowboys

63.               Montee Ball, RB, Wisconsin (7.2)

Actual Draft Position:  2.58, Denver Broncos

64.               John Simon, DE, Ohio St. (7.2)

Actual Draft Position:  4.129, Baltimore Ravens

65.               Matt Barkley, QB, USC (7.0)

Actual Draft Position:  4.98, Philadelphia Eagles

66.               Markus Wheaton, WR, Oregon St. (7.0)

Actual Draft Position:  3.79, Pittsburgh Steelers

67.               Alec Ogletree, OLB, UGA (7.0)

Actual Draft Position:  1.30, St. Louis Rams

68.               Bennie Logan, DT, LSU (7.0)

Actual Draft Position:  3.67, Philadelphia Eagles

69.               Dallas Thomas, OT, Tennessee (7.0)

Actual Draft Position:  3.77, Miami Dolphins

70.               Vance McDonald, TE, Rice (7.0)

Actual Draft Position:  2.55, San Francisco 49ers

71.               Zach Ertz, TE, Stanford (7.0)

Actual Draft Position:  2.35, Philadelphia Eagles

72.               Kevin Reddick, LB, UNC (6.9)

N/A

73.               Zac Stacy, RB, Vanderbilt (6.9)

Actual Draft Position:  5.160, St. Louis Rams

74.               Barrett Jones, C, Alabama (6.9)

Actual Draft Position:  4.113, St. Louis Rams

75.               Kenny Stills, WR, Oklahoma (6.9)

Actual Draft Position:  5, 144, New Orleans Saints

76.               DeVonte Holloman, OLB, South Carolina (6.9)

Actual Draft Position:  6.185, Dallas Cowboys

77.               Sean Porter, OLB, TAMU (6.9)

Actual Draft Position:  4.118, Cincinnati Bengals

78.               Mike Glennon, QB, NC State (6.8)

Actual Draft Position: 3.73, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

79.               Quanterus Smith, DE, W. Kentucky (6.8)

Actual Draft Position:  5.146, Denver Broncos

80.               Matt Scott, QB, Arizona (6.8)

N/A

81.               Manti Te’o, LB, Notre Dame (6.8)

Actual Draft Position:  2.36, San Diego Chargers

82.               Ryan Nassib, QB, Syracuse (6.7)

Actual Draft Position:  4.110, New York Giants

83.               Travis Kelce, TE, Cincinnati (6.7)

Actual Draft Position:  3.63, Kansas City Chiefs

84.               AJ Klein, LB, Iowa State (6.7)

Actual Draft Position:  5.148, Carolina Panthers

85.               Cierre Wood, RB, Notre Dame (6.7)

N/A

86.               Zac Dyssert, QB, Miami OH (6.6)

Actual Draft Position: 7.234, Denver Broncos

87.               Joseph Randle, RB, Oklahoma St. (6.6)

Actual Draft Position:  5.151, Dallas Cowboys

88.               Cobi Hamilton, WR, Arkansas (6.6)

Actual Draft Position:  6.197, Cincinnati Bengals

89.               Tavaress King, WR, Georgia (6.6)

Actual Draft Position:  5.161, Denver Broncos

90.               Tyler Bray, QB,  Tennessee (6.6)

N/A

91.               Oday Aboushi, OT, Virginia (6.6)

Actual Draft Position:  5.141, New York Jets

92.               Khaseem Green, OLB, Rutgers (6.5)

Actual Draft Position:  4.117, Chicago Bears

93.               Aaron Dobson, WR, Marshall (6.5)

Actual Draft Position:  2.59, New England Patriots

94.               Stedman Bailey, WR, West Virginia (6.5)

Actual Draft Position:  3.92, St. Louis Rams

95.               Brian Winters, OG, Kent State (6.5)

Actual Draft Position:  3.72, New York Jets

96.               Sam Montgomery, DE, LSU (6.5)

Actual Draft Position:  3.95, Houston Texans

97.               Gavin Escobar, TE, SDSU (6.5)

Actual Draft Position:  2.47, Dallas Cowboys

98.               Damontre Moore, DE, TAMU (6.5)

Actual Draft Position:  3.81, New York Giants

99.               George Winn, RB, Cincinnati (6.4)

N/A

100.            Knile Davis, RB, Arkansas (6.4)

Actual Draft Position:  3.96, Kansas City Chiefs

 

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About Bryan Perez

Managing Editor of Bears Wire, an entity of the USA TODAY Sports Media Group | Publisher of Draft Breakdown | Focused analysis on the Chicago Bears and the NFL Draft | Follow me on Twitter: @BryanPerezNFL

View all posts by Bryan Perez

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